The conclave happens behind closed doors. World leaders are still meddling.

VATICAN CITY — With varying degrees of subtlety, leaders from Emmanuel Macron and Giorgia Meloni to Donald Trump are all maneuvering over the election of the next pope.

As the conclave kicks off on Wednesday, the 133 cardinals who will choose the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics do so knowing that rarely in recent times have global politics encroached so strongly on their decision. And scarcely have divisions been so stark.

With cardinals meeting for covert Chianti-fueled lunches, bartering prestigious post-conclave positions and anonymously briefing friendly journalists, the process has already swirled with gossip and intrigue. Only when the door shuts, and all mobile phone signals in the Vatican have been extinguished, can the cardinals really start to ignore the influence of those outside.

The buildup has not only demonstrated the global staying power of the Catholic Church, but also underlined its role as a major power player at a time when the world feels fraught with danger and old certainties and alliances are crumbling. 

Cardinals understand why the pressure arises. Leaders with nationalist ideals could benefit from the moral authority of a homegrown pope. Western leaders also want to avoid another pope that is critical of NATO expansion, sympathetic to China, or out of line with their views on ethical issues including migration and abortion.

A charismatic pope could steer public opinion, especially in Catholic countries, or galvanize criticism of certain policies as Pope Francis did with U.S. President Trump.

Almost as soon as Francis died on Easter Monday, the politicking began. This isn’t a world of public meetings with official minutes, but one of clandestine lobbying and hushed conversations.

French President Macron met with four French cardinals while in Rome for Francis’ funeral, which some in Rome interpreted as a signal of his support for a French pope. Macron’s office denied he was seeking to influence the decision, while the French embassy in Rome said the president was following the “French Republican custom.” It called any suggestion to the contrary “not dignified.”

Around the same time, Trump endorsed an American cardinal who had opposed a Vatican agreement with China, and even put himself forward as pope. For its part, Beijing took advantage of the moment to appoint two problematic Catholic bishops without the Vatican’s consent. 

As for the leader in closest proximity to the Vatican, Italian PM Meloni ordered her MPs to stay silent. Nonetheless, media outlets close to her coalition have been pushing cardinals who might share her views, and attacking unpalatable candidates. 

Bugging the conclave

In days gone by, foreign powers have often tried to influence conclaves, particularly during the Cold War when the CIA was suspected of bugging it. Indeed, until the early 20th century, France, Spain and Austria-Hungary could even veto which pope was elected. 

Now, at a time of waning Western moral authority and influence in multilateral institutions, the election of a pope with a more nuanced global outlook on China and Ukraine could be problematic. Pope Francis redistributed power by creating an unusually large number of cardinals from the global south, signaling a church that can no longer be assumed to be an offshoot of the West. 

“More than Greenland or the Panama canal, Trump wants the Church back ― with the West,” said Piero Schiavazzi, professor of Vatican geopolitics at Link University in Rome.

Meanwhile, Macron, who is in political difficulty at home, is pushing for a progressive French pope, Schiavazzi said, “as a spiritual leader with maximum authority”

“He could help steer French public opinion toward the center left,” he said.

Looking to the future, or the past?

But the cardinals are no stranger to politics themselves, and their own interests should not be underestimated. 

Since Francis’ death on Easter Monday they have been huddling daily, giving covert campaign speeches as they agonize over whether to adapt to modernity or continue to resist it. 

In a reminder of the ostensibly spiritual objectives of the conclave after a highly politicized few weeks, the cardinals streamed into St. Peter’s Basilica on Sunday for a hypnotic mass attended by pilgrims and tourists. 

But then, soon enough, they were at it again. Sweeping off their silken white cloaks they scattered into the city to resume their clandestine lobbying — poring over potential frontrunners and voting blocs. For all their public deference to the Holy Spirit, the cardinals themselves are hardly immune to the cacophony of world politics. 

“We’re talking about all those themes that you’re also discussing in the media — evangelization, the life of the Church, and the need to be attentive to the reality of the world,” Cardinal Fernando Filoni, 79, who served in Baghdad during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, told POLITICO. 

Others seem overwhelmed by the intrusion of the temporal into their daily reality. One cardinal in St. Peter’s Square begged reporters on Monday to leave him in peace and let him go to dinner. Another revealed plans to watch the Ralph Fiennes film Conclave to prepare. 

What will happen

The cardinals cast their first ballots on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m., with up to four votes a day, until white smoke coming from a specially erected chimney indicates a consensus.  

The frontrunners themselves represent a microcosm of a world politics riven by divisions among liberals and conservatives, isolationists and protectionists, and the Global North and Global South. 

The favorites come in for the most online mudslinging, often from U.S. conservative websites.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s top diplomat and Francis’ longest-surviving ally, and Filipino Cardinal Antonio Tagle, former prefect of Propaganda Fide, have been accused by the American association BishopAccountability.org of failures in dealing with clerical abuse. Parolin has also been smeared with claims of illness and attacked for spearheading the Vatican-China deal.

More than anyone else, Parolin straddles the dividing line between the West and its rising rivals.

The consummate Vatican man is losing favor, as younger, non-European cardinals have been given more space to speak, one cardinal said. There now appears to be growing momentum behind Francis “continuity” candidates including cardinals Tagle, the Maltese Mario Grech and the American Robert Prevost. 

“Francis’ name was very frequently quoted” in recent huddles, Indonesian Cardinal Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo told POLITICO. 

Asked if a “Francis 2” was likely, Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez from El Salvador said: “It’s possible.” 

The aim is for a conclave that projects unity after years of internal warring. 

As clerics look ahead to days without Wi-Fi, one told POLITICO he had bought an analogue watch and an old-school alarm clock.

Others simply wanted to get the whole thing over with. Asked if it would be a fast election, Cardinal Filoni said simply: “I hope so.”