Trump promised Britain a trade deal. So where is it?

LONDON — In a much-hyped split-screen Oval Office phone call a month ago, U.S. President Donald Trump promised Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer that the two had struck an “historic” trade deal.

The agreement would lower Trump's punishing 25 percent tariffs on key U.K. exports, including cars, steel and aluminum, the White House said. The pact meant tariffs would be “immediately slashed,” No. 10 trumpeted.

A month later, those duties remain in place. There is still no clear timeline for when they’ll lift.

“Both countries sold their announcement as if [the deal] was done,” said a senior British business representative. And while there’s “no evidence” yet to suggest the tariffs won’t eventually be lifted, they explained, “until it's done, it's not done.”

Multiple business representatives told POLITICO it could be the end of this month before the duties finally lift. They and others were granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Step by step

“Our negotiated deal with the United Kingdom is working out well for all,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on May 23.

But in parliament last week, Starmer conceded it could be “just a couple of weeks” more before the U.S.-U.K. Economic Prosperity Deal, struck May 8, actually comes into effect.

“I'm sure the U.K. government feels enormously frustrated about this,” said the senior British business representative. “I don't think the U.K. government knows” when the deal will finally take effect, they added. “I don't think their trade negotiators know.”

Negotiations over the pact’s implementation are “all on course,” said one senior U.K. official, but added: “But one step at a time.”

During a meeting in Paris on Tuesday, Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds pressed U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to set out timelines for implementing the deal. The two have a “shared desire,” according to a U.K. readout, to lower “sectoral tariffs as soon as possible.”

Steel waiting

The same day, Industry Minister Sarah Jones met with steel and aluminum companies and senior industry figures to discuss next steps. According to one industry insider briefed on the discussion, firms were told it could be the end of June before rates go to zero.

Later that night, the U.K. won a reprieve after Trump raised his tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent. The White House announced the U.K. would instead remain at 25 percent … for now.

Starmer said the reprieve is “a result of our landmark deal with the U.S.”

Yet the executive order spelled out that the president could still hit London with 50 percent steel tariffs “on or after 9 July” if he “determines that the U.K. has not complied with relevant aspects” of their deal.

That means tariffs could go up if Britain doesn’t make good on the raft of promises it made in the deal, including scrubbing China from its supply chains in steel and other industries, and giving American beef farmers a bigger bite of Britain’s market.

“We're pleased that, as a result of our agreement with the U.S., U.K. steel will not be subject to these additional tariffs,” said a government spokesperson. “We will continue to work with the U.S. to implement our agreement, which will see the 25 percent U.S. tariffs on steel removed.”

“We support an agreement, but it is time the government came clean,” said Conservative Shadow Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith, noting: “The only issue is that tariffs continue exactly as before and no deal has come into effect.”

Pay it back?

Lowering the steel tariffs “could take several months,” said Laurence McDougall, owner and managing director of All Steels Trading.

In the meantime, the firm is being forced by its customers in the U.S. to pay the duties, McDougall said. They usually export between two and six shipping containers filled with steel products to the U.S. every month.

British firms expect a “dribble of legal text” firming up different aspects of the deal in the coming weeks, said a second senior business representative.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding when the U.S. will bring into force the automotive tariff-rate quota, and what the rules of origin requirements for accessing it will be,” said Sam Lowe, a partner and automotive trade expert at Flint Global, referencing rules governing the countries from which a product's supply chain is drawn. Cutting China from the list would be a blow for many British automakers, many of which source electric vehicle batteries there.

“Given the original document implied the deal would come into force shortly after the announcement, I think there is a reasonable expectation that the benefits will be backdated once they are eventually put on the books,” Lowe said. “But this isn’t 100 percent guaranteed.”

Getting pummeled

Executives from Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Steel told lawmakers last week that they’re getting pummeled by U.S. tariffs. The duties have hit Britain’s steel exporters since early March, while carmakers have faced the sectoral duties since early April.

“The deal is not implemented as it stands at the moment,” Murray Paul, public affairs director at Jaguar Land Rover, told the U.K. parliament’s Business and Trade Committee.

The firm, he said, is “working under the assumption” that it will be reimbursed for any tariffs that it has paid the U.S. government backdated to May 8. “We need to know when the [Executive Order] will be signed for implementation.”

“There’s … a limit [to] how much we can do in the background to absorb some of that pricing,” JLR’s Paul said, noting that price rises have been passed on to customers. The firm had paused its exports after Trump imposed the 25 percent tariffs in early April, but restarted U.S. shipments the weekend before Downing Street announced the deal.

The 25 percent tariffs on British steel exports have proven “extraordinarily difficult,” Russell Codling, Tata Steel’s director of markets and business development, told members of parliament. The company does between £100 million and £150 million-worth of business in the U.S. each year.

Even with just the 25 percent tariff, Codling said, “at the moment we’re extremely exposed.”

Stefan Boscia contributed reporting.