Europe’s diplomatic blind spot: Kallas’ visit to Baku

Lord Mark McInnes is a member of the U.K.’s House of Lords and vice chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Armenia.

On April 24, Armenians worldwide commemorated the 1.5 million souls lost in the 1915 genocide. Yet, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas chose the very next day for a visit to Azerbaijan — and pointedly not neighboring Armenia — in what was meant to be a regional tour.

What message does it send when Europe’s top diplomat smiles for cameras in Baku as Armenian citizens lay wreaths for victims in Yerevan? Why would Kallas court Azerbaijan on such a sensitive date?

The uncomfortable answer boils down to energy politics.

European parliamentarians were quick to voice their dismay with Kallas’ trip: “You visit the authoritarian regime in Baku and avoid democracy in Yerevan. While Azerbaijan rejects our values, Armenia moves closer to the European Union,” wrote former Bundestag member Michael Roth. It was “scandalous to learn that the EU High Representative is traveling to Azerbaijan on 25 April, while Armenian prisoners remain in Baku prisons,” noted French lawmaker Isabelle Santiago.

The sting is made sharper because of the stark contrast between Armenia and Azerbaijan today.

Over the past eight years, Armenia underwent a democratic renaissance. Following its 2018 “Velvet Revolution,” the country undertook reforms to tackle corruption and strengthen rule of law. And just last month, it adopted a law to launch its EU accession process, reflecting popular demand to anchor Armenia’s future with Europe.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which came to power on the back of protests, has been aligning itself with European values. And Yerevan now hosts an EU observation mission on its borders, while actively seeking to move away from Russia and establish a deeper partnership with the West.

In short, Armenia is doing everything the EU asked of its Eastern partners: Choose democracy, embrace reform, look West.

In contrast, under President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan has become the quintessential autocracy. Power in Baku is concentrated in one family; dissent is crushed, journalists jailed, elections a formality. In February 2024, Aliyev secured a fifth term with 92 percent of the vote — an election observers described as a sham. His regime even appointed his wife vice president.

Meanwhile, on the international stage, Baku has been brazenly aggressive. In 2020, it unleashed a war against ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, violating a fragile ceasefire. Later, Azerbaijani forces blockaded and attacked the region, culminating in a lightning military offensive that forced over 100,000 Armenian civilians to flee their ancestral homes — a humanitarian disaster that unfolded in real time while Europe watched.

And to this day, Azerbaijan illegally detains Armenian prisoners of war and civilians as hostages.

Despite all this, ever since Europe sought to wean itself off Russian gas, it has treated Azerbaijan as a coveted partner. The EU signed a major energy memorandum with Baku in 2022, aiming to double gas imports. And standing beside Aliyev, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen famously hailed the country as a “reliable” supplier.

It appears that when Europe looks at the Caucasus, it sees Azerbaijan’s oil and gas wells but ignores Armenia’s democracy and security.

As French MEP and former Minister for European Affairs Nathalie Loiseau observed: “Going to an autocracy which keeps on threatening its neighbor without going to Armenia on the same trip is a mistake … Baku targets an EU member state with malign interference and sides with Russia, when democratic Armenia looks towards Europe.”

Her words underscore an absurd reality. Realpolitik, it seems, has eclipsed principle, and the EU appears hypocritical when it rebukes authoritarianism in Europe’s east while acquiescing to it in the South Caucasus.

Dulled by energy deals and geopolitical caution, the international response to Azerbaijan’s aggression has been tepid for too long. But European security and values are indivisible, and the bloc cannot carve out exceptions without undermining its moral authority. Supporting Armenia, a fledgling democracy under siege, is not only the right thing to do, it also serves Europe’s own long-term interest in a stable, rules-based international order.