Merz is weakened from Day 1. Europe will pay the price.

As Europe’s frontline war leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke for millions of Europeans when he congratulated Friedrich Merz on scraping into office — on his second attempt — as the new chancellor of Germany. 

“We sincerely hope that Germany will grow even stronger,” the Ukraine president said, “and that we’ll see more German leadership in European and transatlantic affairs.” 

Keep hoping. 

Zelenskyy’s message was diplomatic, but it contained an unmistakable critique of the gaping hole at the heart of European politics: Germany’s weak leadership and procrastination in the face of aggression from Russia and betrayal by Donald Trump’s United States. 

Tuesday, May 6 was meant to be the day that changed all that, giving Germany a strong new government and restoring Europe’s mojo. Instead, Bundestag members humiliated Merz with an unprecedented insult, refusing to confirm him in office even after his coalition deal was done. 

It was the last thing the European Union’s centrists needed. 

Merz eventually won enough votes to become chancellor in a second ballot, but “the political damage is done,” Katja Hoyer, an academic and author of “Beyond the Wall,” told POLITICO. “This is not the start of a confident, stable government, but a sign of how deep the fissures of the German center ground run.”

AWOL in Berlin

For the past three years, Germany has been reluctant to perform its traditional European leadership role, if not shirking it altogether.

Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz talked a big game on defense but dragged his feet on supplying Kyiv with weaponry such as tanks and long-range missiles that Zelenskyy said he needed to repel Vladimir Putin’s invading army. 

Leading a fractious three-party coalition, Scholz had little room to make major moves and eventually could not keep his government from crumbling. 

Zelenskyy noted that strong leadership from Merz would be “especially important with the future of Europe at stake — and it will depend on our unity.” 

Yet German politics is now deeply divided. Without “unity” at home, Merz will struggle to drive the change he says Europe needs, from a surge in defense spending to policies that can insulate German manufacturing from Trump’s tariffs and the challenges posed by China. 

In February’s election, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) placed a strong second with 21 percent of the vote behind Merz’s Christian Democrats and ahead of the Social Democrats. It will remain a menace to the new government as migration continues to dominate political debate. The German economy is moribund, too, with traditional industry on the slide. 

These structural challenges facing Merz’s coalition characterize a political center ground that is losing its grip across Europe. The same could be said of Britain, for example. Or, more critically for the EU, France. 

Macron’s missteps

Germany’s leadership is vital for the EU because the bloc’s second-biggest economy can’t escape its own political entanglements. 

Last year, French President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble on a snap election in an effort to crush the far-right National Rally (RN), but instead delivered a hung parliament that is unable to agree on virtually anything. Recent polls suggest the RN’s Jordan Bardella would have a good shot at winning the French presidency in 2027. 

“The whole of Europe looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability and a pro-European powerhouse. That hope has been dashed. With consequences way beyond our borders,” said Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Merkel’s reject

At the heart of all this is a question. How did Merz end up making such a mess of what should have been a parliamentary formality? Was it a mistake by one or two lawmakers who thought they could get away with a protest? Or was it a deeper sign of an unpopular leader prone to political miscalculation? 

During his brief time in the international spotlight so far, Merz has shown himself to be impulsive and fallible. He took a gamble in relying on AfD votes to pass migration measures in the Bundestag before the election, believing it would strengthen his CDU party’s vote. Instead, the Christian Democrats slid, while the AfD continued its march. 

In astonishingly blunt statements after the polls closed on election night, Merz laid into Trump and questioned the viability of NATO.

Merz’s critics point to a decision by former leader Angela Merkel to bar him from powerful positions as evidence she knew he wasn’t good enough to hold high office.

If they’re right, it might be that the only thing worse for Europe than a weakened Chancellor Merz would be a strong one.