Germany in turmoil as Merz loses vote to be chancellor. What next?

BERLIN ― Friedrich Merz’s dramatic German parliament defeat in a vote to make him chancellor is yet more evidence of the fragility of his incoming government.

The loss is not fatal ― another vote is now set for Tuesday afternoon local time ― but the outcome is humiliating for a politician who was already struggling to retain support two months after the country’s election, and amid brickbats hurled by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Merz was six votes short of the 316 parliamentarians he needed to become chancellor in a first secret Bundestag ballot Tuesday morning. That margin is so small, it’s likely to be overturned when lawmakers vote later in the day, analysts suggested.

After the morning’s uncharacteristically chaotic events, Germany’s parliamentary groups hurried to consult on when a second vote would take place. If Merz fails again in the second vote, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz will remain in charge in an interim capacity.

Merz won the Feb. 23 election and has since been trying to cobble together a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merz’s campaign promises included pledges to improve relations with Germany’s neighbors, and to take a more proactive position on the European stage. He was supposed to travel to Paris and Warsaw on Wednesday as the newly sworn-in chancellor, adding pressure on his conservatives to hold the second vote today in order to avoid further humiliation.

Observers said it was likely the parliament voting anomaly ― which should have been a formality ― arises from Merz’s own ranks not voting for him, and maybe simply because of lawmakers absent due to ill health. However, for a new chancellor to fail to win enough parliamentary votes to endorse him is unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history.

No other parties — including the biggest opposition party, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — were expected to vote in favor of him. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel subsequently called for fresh nationwide elections.

Dwindling certainty

“These are times of dwindling certainty, not only as far as important political decisions are concerned, but also with regard to majorities,” political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte said on German public television.

The constitution stipulates that a second round of voting is possible but must transpire within two weeks, Korte explained. If Merz is not elected in a second vote, he would then face a final and decisive third round of voting, where he could then become chancellor by a simple majority, Korte added.

Merz became a conservative member of the European Parliament in 1989, and is a party veteran with no governing experience. He left politics in the early 2000s after losing a power struggle with the more centrist Angela Merkel, who ruled as chancellor. He spent a decade in the private sector before returning to politics in 2018 when Merkel stepped down as party leader.

This story has been updated.