Poland’s Tusk set to win confidence vote, but faces uphill slog to govern

WARSAW — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to comfortably survive a confidence vote on Wednesday but the result will do little to assuage the challenges posed by the victory of conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki in the June 1 presidential election.

Tusk’s pro-EU, centrist ruling coalition holds 242 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, or lower house, which means the vote itself will almost certainly go in his favor, but is unlikely to win him the political respite he craves in the NATO country of 37 million people.

The prime minister now faces having to deal not only with Trump-aligned Nawrocki scuppering his reform agenda with presidential vetos at every turn, but also with fault lines in his own coalition, particularly among partners who think Tusk himself is losing them votes.

Dorota Łoboda, a parliamentarian for Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the largest party in the government and spokesperson for its parliamentary caucus, said the aim of the vote was to dispel suggestions that Tusk’s administration was wobbling after Nawrocki’s wafer-thin win.

“We want to end all speculation regarding the alleged loss of support for Donald Tusk’s government. We simply want to end external and internal discussions, and any attempts to undermine the mandate Donald Tusk has to lead the government, and just move forward,” she said.

That, however, is easier said than done. Nawrocki’s victory directly threatens Tusk’s ability to enact his agenda, as the president can veto key reforms in areas including abortion, same-sex partnerships, the judicial system and social security payments for the self-employed.

Nawrocki’s unexpected victory sent shockwaves through Tusk’s four-party coalition, which now promises to intensify efforts to deliver on the commitments made ahead of the 2023 general election. A lack of progress on the initiatives that helped bring the coalition to power two years ago is seen as a key factor behind the shift of voters away from it on June 1.

Nawrocki is expected to chisel away at the government’s effectiveness and popularity ahead of the next general election in 2027.

Tusk’s administration would have needed a three-fifths majority to override presidential vetoes, but falls well short. Indeed, polls already suggest the coalition would lose its majority to the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and the far-right Konfederacja party, whose voters played a key role in securing Nawrocki’s victory.

Ahead of the confidence vote, the coalition was embroiled in internal disputes, with MPs accusing Tusk and his party of serious errors during the final phase of the campaign of their candidate: Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.

They even criticized Tusk for putting himself forward as the prominent face of the campaign.

“In the campaign, Prime Minister Donald Tusk took over communication at a crucial moment! Someone finally has to say this: Prime minister, over their eight years in power, [PiS] EFFECTIVELY gave you a bad image [and] you haven’t changed that,” Joanna Mucha, an MP for the Third Way, a centrist-conservative group allied with Tusk’s coalition, wrote on social media last week.

Facing these ructions with partners, Tusk is expected to deliver a policy statement resulting from intense talks within the coalition on how to avoid losing power in the 2027 election.

Each party in the coalition has put forward its own priorities during these discussions.

“We must deliver on things like civil partnerships, affordable housing and health care,” Anita Kucharska-Dziedzic, an MP for the Left, told POLITICO.

The Third Way has publicly outlined five points it wants the coalition to address: Making public media truly independent from the government, ending the informal spoils system over the control of state-owned companies, allocating funds to people assisting the disabled, allocating funds for housing, and banning smartphone use in primary schools.

According to Łoboda, Tusk’s speech will also seek common ground with Nawrocki. Warsaw wants to reassure its allies that Tusk and Nawrocki are at least aligned in opposition to Russia and can agree on big military budgets.

“Defense and security is one area where it’s possible to reach an agreement with the new president. Then issues concerning the economy, including deregulation,” Łoboda said.

Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, Tusk’s deputy EU minister, said the administration now had until 2027 to regain public trust.

“For the moment we see all the parties in the coalition will vote in favor … for the government. We are living in times which are unstable globally, so we need to work together and I hope the new president will cooperate.” 

Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting.