Here we go again! How to watch Romania’s do-over election like a pro

Stop us if you think you’ve heard this one before.

Romanians will head to the polls Sunday for the much-anticipated first round of their presidential election.

This weekend’s vote, which follows November’s canceled election, will decide which two candidates — from a field that includes far-right firebrands and anti-EU crusaders — will make it to the all-important second round on May 18, in which we’ll find out who will go to Cotroceni Palace, the presidential residence in Bucharest.

Getting to this point has involved some dizzying legal twists and turns, including dramatic disqualifications and surprise comebacks. So we figured it was time to answer a few questions you might have and offer a breakdown of what to expect on Sunday — and beyond.

What, again?

Da. Romanians already voted last November, but the result — which saw relatively unknown ultranationalist maverick Călin Georgescu leap out to a shock first-round victory — was annulled by the country’s constitutional court over Russian interference concerns. The court ordered a do-over.

Georgescu was barred from running again, with Romania’s election bureau finding he “violated the very obligation to defend democracy,” and he quickly exhausted all legal avenues to appeal the expulsion, meaning he will have to sit out Sunday’s vote.

So who’s actually running?

About a dozen candidates will appear on the ballot, but for now just five are tipped to have a shot at making it to the second round on May 18. (Be sure to take Romanian polls, which completely failed to predict Georgescu’s first-round triumph in November, with a hefty grain of salt.)

The front-runner is George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians party. Simion denies he is pro-Russian but wants to stop military aid to Ukraine and has vowed to appoint Georgescu to a top role if he is elected.

Crin Antonescu is running as the establishment candidate, with the endorsement of Romania’s ruling center-left Social Democrats as well as the center-right National Liberals and the Hungarian minority party. A former history teacher, Antonescu had a brief, unimpressive stint as acting president in 2012, which lasted just 48 days, and has not held public office for a decade.

Nicușor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest since 2020, is running as an independent candidate, as is Victor Ponta, Romania’s former Social Democrat prime minister. Ponta resigned from his post in 2015 amid street protests over a nightclub fire that killed 64 people and was later investigated for corruption but cleared.

Then there’s Elena Lasconi, another centrist candidate for the reformist Save Romania Union (USR). A former journalist, Lasconi entered politics in 2020 when she successfully ran for mayor of a small town near Bucharest, and came second in the canceled first round of Romania’s election in November. Polls now show her trailing far behind the other candidates, and her own party has deserted her in favor of Dan.

When do we get the results?

The first round vote will take place this Sunday, May 4, with polling stations open from 7 a.m. until 9 p.m. Romania’s massive diaspora can vote from Friday to allow time for ballots to be counted. Follow POLITICO’s Poll of Polls on the big day for the results as they come in; we’ll bring you the count late into the night.

According to Romania’s electoral authority, the two names that will appear on the ballot in the May 18 second round must be publicized no later than May 9, though we will likely know which two candidates have pulled ahead sooner than that.

Theoretically, if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be no need for a second round in two weeks. But an outright winner this weekend would be unexpected.

Why does any of this matter?

There’s an awful lot at stake in this election, not just for Romania but for the European Union, NATO and even the Russia-Ukraine war.

Romania, a nation of about 19 million which borders Ukraine, has long been a reliable member of the EU and NATO. But if Simion — who has described his party’s style as “Trumpist” — wins, he has promised to push back against Brussels, telling POLITICO last November that he would break EU law if he deemed it necessary, and has said he wants to yank military support for Kyiv.

Ponta, the former prime minister, is also running on a MAGA-style platform, promising to halt Ukrainian grain exports through Romanian ports. Antonescu, the establishment candidate, and Dan, the Romanian capital’s mayor, are considered safer, more mainstream contenders by Brussels, though it remains to be seen how they would fare against Simion in a theoretical second round.

If the country makes a sharp turn to the right, it would join a growing hard-right contingent helping govern in Europe, from Hungary and Slovakia to Italy, Finland and the Netherlands.

POLITICO has outlined the various electoral scenarios and matchups that could take place after Sunday’s vote here.