Who is winning the Romanian election? 

ALBA IULIA, Romania — The contest for the Romanian presidency is almost over. 

Sunday’s vote will determine whether a strategically vital NATO member on the EU’s eastern edge takes a turn against Ukraine under the disruptive influence of a hard-right populist, or remains firmly anchored in the traditional pro-Brussels mainstream.

In the lead after the first round is the Donald Trump-loving George Simion, a 38-year-old nationalist who opposes aid to Ukraine and has previously favored uniting Romania with its neighbor Moldova. 

His opponent in Sunday’s second round runoff vote is moderate, centrist mathematician Nicușor Dan, 55, who has been the independent mayor of Romania’s capital, Bucharest, since 2020. Dan promises to keep Romania on its European and pro-Western trajectory and has called on Trump to take a harder line with Russia. 

Their contest has at times taken on the air of a schoolyard stand-off: Simion, who is constantly picking conflicts with his critics, ridiculed the soft-spoken intellectual Dan as “autistic” on Thursday. 

“We are basically winning,” Simion told POLITICO in separate remarks during a visit to Brussels on Thursday. “The only thing we need is fair and free elections, all the institutions to act in a normal, correct way, and we will finish first when the last vote [has] been counted. I have a rather optimistic view on it, on the final result, I think it will be a landslide.” 

Is he right to be so confident? 

The polls 

In the first round of the election, Simon won 41 percent of the vote to Dan’s 21 per cent. The question is whether Simion can maintain that huge advantage — or if Dan can attract enough support from backers of other parties to overtake him in Sunday’s second round.

In the early polls looking at the head-to-head contest after the first vote, Simion retained a comfortable lead — at 55 percent to Dan’s 45, in one survey commissioned by the Bucharest mayor himself. 

But more recent polls have shown the gap narrowing significantly as decision day gets closer.

On Wednesday, a poll of 4,000 people by AtlasIntel put the two candidates level on 48 percent each. Crucially, AtlasIntel included a sample of the large Romanian diaspora population, among whom Simion is hugely popular. 

Then, on Thursday, Dan took the lead in a poll for the first time, with 52 percent to Simion’s 48 percent. That survey, by independent research institute IRSOP, canvassed some 950 people. 

Many Romanians are reluctant to say how they will vote, with some fearing repercussions. Given the high level of cynicism regarding the process, and the fact the polls previously underestimated support for right-wingers, are such surveys truly reliable? 

“Yes, they can be trusted,” said Radu Magdin, a former Romanian government adviser who is now CEO of Smartlink Communications. “It’s going to be really tight on Sunday. It’s highly unlikely that Simion wins with a margin. Either he wins close or even it’s a high possibility that Nicușor Dan catches up and wins, based on an increased participation.” 

The air war 

Romania’s election has been fought largely on TV and on social media. Neither of the two candidates spent much time on the ground, touring the country, in the final days, and there has been no pressing the flesh or holding rallies in key constituencies. Simion hasn’t even been in the country.

Both have instead relied on rallying their voters online and via TV appearances. 

Dan has taken part in multiple debates on television, where he has given polished if sometimes pedestrian answers to questions. 

Simion, by contrast, has only taken part in one direct debate involving Dan, which was seen to have helped the Bucharest mayor. Dan’s supporters have repeatedly complained that Simion won’t show up to TV debates, adopting the image of an empty chair to symbolize their opponent. 

Romania’s national broadcaster scheduled a final TV question-and-answer “debate” for each candidate — with Dan appearing on Thursday and Simion due to take his turn on Friday. But Simion failed to confirm his participation, leading the broadcaster to call it off.

Instead, Simion has used a regular flow of social media messages to ram home his radical, Trumpist offering. He has attacked the mainstream media, alleging they distort their coverage of his political positions, and has even hauled journalists into his office to give them an angry scolding before posting the video on X. 

He has also radically changed his game in the last few days. This week he has toured Europe, perhaps to bolster his international credentials, meeting hard-right allies in Poland, Italy and Brussels. 

During an exchange with a reporter in Brussels on Thursday, Simion said: “You have a candidate you’re supporting, he’s autistic, poor guy.” 

Dan hit back: “Wanting to be president and using ‘autistic’ as an insult is unacceptable.” 

Policy clashes 

When it comes to policy, Simion has promised to follow Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war and to emulate his governing style more generally, cutting taxes and boosting business while stamping out “woke” ideology and backing traditional Christian and family values.

Amid criticism that he has been too pro-Putin, Simion has recently talked up his belief in NATO.  While avoiding outright anti-EU postures, he has also claimed to stand up for Romania in negotiations with the bloc, and on Thursday accused French President Emmanuel Macron of having “dictatorial tendencies” — the kind of comment that wouldn’t be out of place coming from Trump.

Dan, meanwhile, has called on Trump to put more pressure on Putin in peace negotiations with Ukraine and has vowed to continue to steer Romania along its pro-European and Western path, describing Simion as a “Russian gazette.”

Turnout 

In the end, voter turnout is likely to be the deciding factor. Analysts, including those within Dan’s camp, believe the higher the turnout, the better for the Bucharest mayor. 

“Historically there is a higher turnout with around 10 per cent more in the 2nd round of presidential elections compared with the first round,” said analyst Magdin. 

If turnout remains at the level of round one — up to 55 percent — Simion would likely win, he said. “At 60 percent-plus, suddenly Nicușor Dan becomes the most probable winner.” 

One official working on Dan’s team told POLITICO that mobilizing new voters will be key. To win Dan needs 11 million people to turn out compared to the 9.5 million in the first round, the official said.

Georgescu’s ghost

Simion is the front-runner after ultranationalist Georgescu, the far-right shock victor of last year’s canceled election, was disqualified. Romanian authorities said foreign interference had helped propel him to victory.

Many voters in Romania — including those who did not back Georgescu — felt aggrieved that faceless officials and judges could abort an election. People in Romania commonly describe democracy as a sham and demand that the country’s “corrupt” political system be torn down.

Simion is the chief beneficiary of this anger, though Dan also promises to enact change and portrays himself as an “anti-system” politician.  

Foreign votes 

The Romanian diaspora could swing the Sunday vote results either way. An estimated 4 million Romanians live abroad, 970,000 of whom voted in the first round — with about 60 percent backing Simion. 

Voting has already begun among the diaspora for round two. “The polls that we’ve seen until now are not accurate because they don’t cover the diaspora,” said Elena Calistru, civic activist and president of Funky Citizen NGO. “In the previous elections, the turnout for the diaspora was more than one million people.”

“The huge difference we saw between the two candidates in the first round of the elections is indeed closing in, and Nicușor Dan is on the rise,” she said. “The turnout will be fundamental.”