Is Serbia turning into an EU mining colony?

The European Union placed a strategic bet on Serbia’s lithium reserves to fuel its ambitious shift to electric vehicles. What it ended up getting in return were dirty politics and an environmental backlash so severe it is poisoning the Balkan nation’s relations with Brussels and blighting its aspirations to join the bloc.

Serbia’s Jadar lithium deposit is estimated to contain enough of the soft, white metal to power 1 million EVs and cater to up to 25 percent of Europe’s demand, placing the continent’s largest lithium deposit at the heart of EU efforts to secure supplies of the critical raw materials needed to transition away from fossil fuels.

No wonder, then, that a project to mine the deposit, developed by global giant Rio Tinto, stands to secure crucial backing from Brussels under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which aims to reduce the bloc’s heavy reliance on China for essential resources.

Yet intense resistance to the project from Serbs, who worry about environmental damage and accuse their political leaders of corruption and cronyism, threatens to undermine support for EU membership that runs at around 40 percent.

If the EU decides to support Jadar, it will signal that the bloc prioritizes its economic interests over fundamental values, and will also “have dramatic consequences on Serbia and the region,” said Aleksandar Matković, a Belgrade-based researcher who has organized protests against the mining project. 

The protests have become tied up in a broader wave of anti-government unrest in Serbia, with tensions escalating further after a documentary, produced by a metallurgist who supports the Rio Tinto project, controversially labeled those who oppose it as Russian agents.

That claim has been repeated on the pages of the Wall Street Journal, while activists have also faced allegations of acting as agents for the EU and China. “We cannot be agents of three different superpowers,” said Matković, who works at the Institute for Economic Sciences in Belgrade.

On March 25, Industry Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné unveiled 47 strategic raw materials projects under the CRMA but unexpectedly didn’t include non-EU projects — leading many to wonder if this was because of the controversy surrounding Rio Tinto’s Jadar lithium mine. 

The Commission declined to comment on whether concerns around Jadar had affected the decision to delay the announcement, but emphasized the broader ambitions around the EU’s strategic raw materials partnership with Serbia.

That partnership “does in no way change the EU’s approach to the fundamentals of the EU accession process,” a spokesperson said. “What [it] can do is to bring investments in raw materials, batteries, and e-mobility that will boost economic development and [the] green and digital transition and create new job opportunities.”

Shortly after Séjourné announced the EU-backed projects, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa for dinner in Brussels — and got an earful on Serbia’s democratic backsliding.

The EU leaders expressed their displeasure at Vučić’s handling of student unrest and the wider protests against his rule that have persisted for more than four months. Vučić, for his part, has accused protesters of being funded by the West — resorting to a common trope in both Serbian politics and the controversy around the Jadar project: blaming outside interference.

“The country needs to deliver on EU reforms, in particular to take decisive steps towards media freedom, the fight against corruption, and … electoral reform,” von der Leyen wrote in a social media post after their meeting.

All eyes are now on whether the Jadar mine will appear on the EU’s next list of CRMA projects. On March 25, Séjourné noted he “will be presenting the selected projects in the coming weeks,” adding that those outside the EU “will not disappear from the map.”

If it receives EU backing, the project would gain better access to funding opportunities — though it wouldn’t enjoy the same benefits as EU-based projects, such as fast-tracked permits and direct financial support.

European lawmaker Hildegaard Bentele believes that Jadar is “crucial for Serbia, it’s crucial for the EU, it’s crucial for the whole automotive sector.” Bentele, who represents Germany’s Christian Democrats, serves as the European Parliament’s representative on an advisory panel that reviews CRMA strategic projects with the European Commission.

But for many in Serbia, the Jadar project now symbolizes the EU’s alignment with a mining giant at the expense of public concerns — prioritizing Germany’s industrial interests and the bloc’s race to close the EV gap with a dominant China. Meanwhile, popular mistrust has led many locals to believe that only the politicians will benefit. (Serbia's score is the lowest within the Western Balkans in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.)

Origin story

In 2004, Rio Tinto geologists prospecting in the Jadar valley found a high-grade deposit combining boron and lithium, naming it "jadarite." Fast forward to 2021: Rio Tinto announced it would be commencing operations on the project, committing over €2 billion.

That announcement sparked massive protests, forcing the government to suspend the Jadar undertaking. Ana Brnabić, the prime minister of the day, declared it the “absolute end” of Rio Tinto’s plans.

But in July 2024, Serbia’s constitutional court allowed the project to resume. A week later, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič flew to Belgrade for the signing of a strategic partnership between Serbia and the EU on sustainable raw materials, battery value chains and electric vehicles.

Šefčovič, now the EU’s trade commissioner, called the project a “testament to our shared commitment to driving forward the green transition.” Scholz described it as a “truly European project,” stressing that “above all, we need these batteries.”

Measuring the opposition

But why, exactly, is Jadar so controversial? Despite Rio Tinto’s attempts to be transparent about the project to assuage environmental concerns, resistance to breaking ground on the underground mine persists.

“There is absolutely no place for lithium mining in a fertile valley, with sources of spring water, groundwater, a valley that feeds people, where farmers have tilled land for seven or eight generations,” said Bojana Novaković, leader of environmental NGO Marš sa Drine (March on the Drina).

If poorly managed, lithium extraction could contaminate groundwater reserves and farmland vital to the Jadar valley’s predominantly agricultural community, green critics contend. 

Nebojša Petković from the Ne Damo Jadar (We Won’t Surrender Jadar) association, who describes himself as pro-European, believes the EU isn't interested in Serbia's becoming a member. He accused the bloc of only caring about its own profits: “They want to turn us into their resource base and [a] landfill of Europe,” he said, branding the mine a strategic project to “destroy” Serbia. 

Rio Tinto insists the mine won’t pose the same environmental risks as others, because it will use dry rather than liquid waste storage methods. Mining waste, known as tailings, typically consists of fine rock particles, water, and sometimes chemicals — raising concerns about potential leaks or dam collapses.

“Our tailings are solid like a brick,” says Chad Blewitt, managing director of the Jadar project. “It cannot wash away, it cannot collapse.”

However, dry waste isn’t immune to water exposure, warns Diego Marin from the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) network. The Jadar valley is prone to flooding — most notably in 2014, when inundations killed 57 people in Serbia and triggered the release of heavy metals from mine sites in the area after a dam broke.

While dry tailings are “definitely a better practice,” Marin notes they are “still not safe from ecological concerns,” including dust emissions and potential heavy metal contamination. 

A report from the Renewables and Environmental Regulatory Institute in Belgrade (RERI) found that the current environmental impact assessment scoping request from Rio Tinto does not cover mining waste disposal — only the underground mine.

“The impact of this waste has not been adequately assessed, nor were adequate measures suggested for preventing, removing, or reducing any significant adverse impact on the environment,” said Mirko Popović, program director at RERI. 

One proposed safeguard is to bring in an auditor, such as the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA). Rio Tinto has expressed willingness to allow IRMA to produce an external report on Jadar, but IRMA Director Aimee Boulanger told POLITICO that issuing a verdict on a mine that doesn't yet exist would be difficult. 

What’s more, the relationship between Rio Tinto and local residents may already have reached the point of no return. “It’s really difficult to regain trust when trust is already broken,” said Boulanger, who supports the involvement of IRMA but notes there has been no formal approach from the company so far.

In a statement to POLITICO after this story was first published, project chief Blewitt rejected those assertions.

“Rio Tinto strongly refutes the unsubstantiated claims that the Jadar Project will have a negative impact on agriculture and water quality. Such allegations are baseless and ignore the robust draft Environmental Impact Assessments which Rio Tinto has made available to the public,” Blewitt said.

“These studies prove that agriculture can continue to prosper above ground while mining operations are done safely below the surface, just as modern cities exist above underground metro systems. Similarly, the project’s plans for dry tailings for waste would guarantee local water is not impacted.”

The German interest

At the core of Europe’s push to compete with China in the EV sector lies the fate of Germany’s auto industry, which plays a powerful role in shaping Berlin’s stance — and by extension influencing EU policy priorities. 

The challenge, however, is that China already has a stranglehold on the critical raw materials pipeline and subsequent battery production, enabling its battery-makers to produce cheaply at scale.

Swedish company Northvolt was once seen as the continent’s best hope, but its demise leaves the German car industry reliant on Chinese suppliers. 

It’s a familiar quandary for German automakers, which in order to enter the Chinese market in the 1980s were required to set up joint ventures with domestic companies and share their technology. For the likes of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen, China’s subsequent economic growth has made the country's market their most lucrative, helping to support costly factories and labor in Europe. 

Europe’s lack of raw materials mining is “making the domestic industry reliant on other countries and external factors for their sourcing … it is essential that the European Union supports the development of the European battery value chain,” EU car lobby ACEA said in a statement on the CRMA.

But securing minerals is just one piece of the puzzle. German automakers are falling behind Chinese EV incumbents on technology and costs, putting their market share — and earnings — at risk in China.

The pressure is being felt back home, with layoffs across the industry. In March, Audi announced it would slash 7,500 jobs by 2029, part of the Volkswagen Group’s plan to cut costs and ease the transition to EVs.

While not key to the success of EU automakers, projects like Jadar are a test of the bloc's ability to wriggle free of China’s economic dominance within its decoupling strategy. 

“For Serbia, a long-standing candidate for EU membership, the agreement … represents an opportunity to move closer to Europe and to push ahead with membership negotiations,” said a spokesperson for the German Association of the Automotive Industry, which represents industry giants such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Documentary drama

The European Parliament entered the controversy in February by hosting a screening of “Not In My Country,” a documentary alleging that local resistance and national protests against lithium mining in Serbia had arisen due to ignorance or misinformation from Russia. The event, which was protested by 100 people in Brussels, was followed by a debate featuring Bentele, Matković and Marijanti Babić, Rio Tinto’s country head for Serbia.

The film, made by Peter Tom Jones, director of the KU Leuven Institute for Sustainable Metals and Minerals (SIM2), was criticized by the protesters for promoting the project and excluding its critics. But Jones defended his work and accused the project’s opponents of refusing to participate. “That’s a very deliberate strategy of the opponents not to engage, not to be part of debates,” he told POLITICO.

In an open letter signed by academics, researchers and students in Belgium to stop the documentary from being screened at Docville, an international documentary film festival in Leuven, the signatories called it “a mouthpiece to state propaganda, it also echoes the corporate interests of Rio Tinto, buttressing its strategic lobbying efforts for lithium mining.” The screening at Docville was canceled amid fears it could attract protesters.

Nik Völker, a researcher at MiningWatch Portugal, pointed out that the Leuven institute “holds various bilateral agreements with lithium mining and processing partners in Europe prominently featured, including mining major Rio Tinto in Serbia.”

A statement released by SIM2 and Jones after the screening at the European Parliament denied allegations that he had collaborated with or received funding from Rio Tinto for the documentary. Instead, they said, it was co-developed and fully financed by the University of Leuven.

“As a consequence, no outside party or company, whether Rio Tinto, ElevenEs, Stellantis or otherwise, has had any influence on the making of this documentary,” Jones said. “Any allegations suggesting that this is the case because there are company collaborations in place in terms of research projects are simply false.”

POLITICO approached Rio Tinto regarding the film, but the company declined to comment. 

Serbia’s future

The fight over the Jadar mine is not just about lithium — it’s also about who gets to define Serbia’s future.

For many Serbs, the EU’s pending seal of approval for Rio Tinto feels like complicity in a system where profit trumps citizen involvement, and where environmental concerns are brushed aside in favor of geopolitical interests. And Serbia’s zigzag foreign policy between major powers has created tensions both domestically and externally.

The EU is now increasingly pressuring Serbia to align more clearly with its interests. The bells are ringing on resource cronyism, where state and corporate interests converge while the public is shut out of the debate.

“I honestly believe it’s political suicide to give this project the time of day and to keep pushing out for any, any kind of political faction within Serbia particularly, but also Europe, because I’ve never seen a project with this much dissent against it,” said Novaković of Marš sa Drine.

Serbia’s aspiration to join the EU now hangs in the balance of the bloc’s push for raw materials. Mining colony or not, the Western Balkan country faces further chaos amidst its instability.

Vučić announced on April 6 that a new Serbian government, led by political novice Đuro Macut, would take office by April 18. If lawmakers don't approve Macut, Vučić looks likely to call snap elections in early June. The verdict of voters will have a crucial impact not only on the fate of the Jadar project — but also on the Balkan nation’s European course.

Jordyn Dahl contributed reporting. Graphic by Giovanna Coi. This story has been updated with further comment from Rio Tinto and a response from the European Commission.