Shocked by the Farage surge? You haven’t been paying attention

Rachel Wolf is CEO of Public First and an author of the 2019 Conservative Party manifesto.

“I went from Conservatives to Labour. Feel like I’ve been gaslit and lied to and now I’m thinking, do you know what? Who hasn’t had a turn in office? I’m going Reform because they haven’t had a shot. And I’m not being funny, they can’t do any worse than what the past governments have done.” – Woman, 40s, Labour 2024, now leaning Reform.

I hope no one reading this is surprised by Reform’s results in last week’s local elections. They are the predictable result of the failures of the last decade.

There is no new magic Reform voter and no new problem politicians must figure out how to tackle. They are the same people who “surprised” us in Brexit, “surprised” us in 2019, and are “surprising” us now.

They voted for Conservatives, they voted for Labour, and the change they wanted didn’t happen. On economics, they were the reason the Conservatives softened economic policy and abandoned austerity, why Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen supported the nationalization of his airport, why Labour had no problems with promising rail nationalization, and why Nigel Farage is advocating to nationalize British steel.

They are the people we have been writing about for the last decade.

They are not protest voters – they have a very reasonable case for not wanting the incumbent parties – but they are understandably anti-political.  In the 2024 election, Labour captured this anti-political vote, for just a moment — bolstered by Tory failures — but it then immediately turned on them. Of course it did. The problems these voters have are not with the Conservatives, but with politicians.

But let’s also have a reality check – those who think this is all about core economic policy or general “disillusionment” are kidding themselves. What do these voters care about?

Immigration. They have consistently voted for a party that promised to lower it, in every election since 2010 – and they have instead seen higher net migration, and more boats crossing the Channel. Farage, they understandably feel, is the only person who has any claim to consistency left (and it is Farage, not Reform in general).

Yes, one of the reasons they dislike immigration is economic – they think it depresses wages – but it’s not the only reason, and making them better off is not going to make this problem disappear.

What should businesses care about? Three things.

First, Reform are now the opposition. What we mean by that is that they now dictate the opposition narrative. They are the only people that the media, the government, will respond to. If you want to change the terms of the debate, Reform will be the ones who do it.

It is also likely the case that voters will increasingly think of them as the opposition – which will in turn affect voting. Meanwhile, no left-leaning party, despite plenty of latent support, has come close to owning opposition to the government. All eyes, including Labour’s, are currently to the right.

Second, the government is going to react, and fast. They will, for example:

– Cut immigration and go after easy wins (such as international students).

– Backtrack more on DEI and other perceived “woke” initiatives.

– Feel under even greater pressure on any investment for climate (including the electricity grid).

– Try and reboot the Boris Johnson-era policy of “leveling up” – and, if they have any sense, they’ll focus on small-level improvements people will notice.

– Worry a lot about any pro-EU stances.

Third, Reform will make the running on a much wider playing field than the government. Farage is a gifted politician who will jump on any row — any inklings that the civil service, institutions, the law, even private businesses, are going after Reform or their voters, and he will turn it into a national story that will run and run.

Of course at some point soon, Reform will start facing more scrutiny. 

Some will be on their policy positions. Let’s not overdo this – Labour did just fine without much policy before the election – but any clear insanity will be noticed. Reform will have to inch left on economics, make peace with supporting the NHS, and avoid straying from net zero realism to climate denialism. 

Some of its positions will be unserious, although we shouldn’t underestimate how unserious, and how incapable of making any progress, voters see current politicians. From their point of view, neither Labour nor the Conservatives can get anything done. 

Nevertheless, Reform must balance being anti-establishment underdogs while leading the polls (and as of last week several councils) for nearly half a decade. They’re not going to have it entirely easy. 

So what happens now? The government will react. The immigration white paper is just the start of a summer of pivots that this government will make – on energy, the economy, health, you name it. If you want to understand how, you should pay attention to exactly the same people you needed to understand for the last decade.