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PRESENTED BY
Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
WHITE SMOKE AT THE RED TOP: Jack Elsom has been appointed political editor at the Sun. The paper’s editor-in-chief Victoria Newton announced in a message to staff that the 28-year-old scoop getter will be stepping up in a reshuffle triggered by Harry Cole’s departure to the U.S. in the coming weeks. Deputy pol ed Ryan Sabey will also now be economics editor, while the Sun on Sunday’s Kate Ferguson will also take charge of the Never Mind the Ballots show.
Newton told staff: “Harry leaves big shoes to fill as he heads to the US, but I’m excited by the huge potential of the new team, which can take our coverage of politics from strength to strength. These are exciting and unpredictable times at Westminster. The Sun will be in the thick of it, breaking stories, sticking up for our readers and holding the politicians to account every day.”
WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Labour MPs are growing frustrated as the winter fuel U-turn crawls on.
— Rachel Reeves said the cash will be back before Christmas. Revealing the costings will take almost as long.
— The chancellor was dismissive of Cabinet colleagues still holding out for more funds in the spending review.
— HMRC revealed some customer accounts have been hacked.
— Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch accused each other of parroting Russian propaganda.
— The PM said his MAGA-mitigation deal will be in place in a “couple of weeks.”
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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
SCREECHING CREAKING U-TURN: Labour MPs are growing ever-more frustrated after the slow and painful U-turn on cutting winter fuel support for pensioners got even more slow and painful.
Months-long process: Keir Starmer confirmed two weeks ago the cash would be reinstated for at least some pensioners. Rachel Reeves confirmed this morning it will be in place for Christmas. But the chancellor also said the government will not set out where the cash will come from until … the next budget.
Plan for changing plans: Following her big infrastructure speech in Manchester this morning, Reeves said the U-turn will take effect “so that pensioners are paid this coming winter.” She also said the government had “listened to the concerns that people had about the level of the means test” for receiving the payment. But she said the full details will be revealed “as soon as we possibly can” and the costs won’t come before autumn.
The assumption is … that Reeves will confirm elements of the change at the spending review. She has little choice if she wants the cash in pockets this winter because government computer processes are so slow. But the gap between confirmation and how the books will add up means the government making unfunded spending announcements — something it claims it is loath to do.
All in all … it means the U-turn might take six months to execute. And although Labour MPs have called for the move, there is deep anguish at how botched the process has been. “Keir should have looked down the barrel of a camera straight after the local elections and said the winter fuel cut was a mistake and explained how it would be fixed,” one said. “Instead it’s dripped out in a mess.”
Case in point: Pensions Minister Torsten Bell this morning told the pensions committee there is “no prospect” that the returned winter fuel cash will be a universal benefit like before. But he set out no further detail on how it will be means tested — leaving a vacuum for pensioners to ponder and for campaigners to exploit. Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch had a go at exploiting it when she asked at PMQs which pensioners will get the cash back. Finance guru Martin Lewis is getting stuck in too.
There is also frustration on the Labour backbenches … at the fact the government dug in on this issue for so long and forced MPs to defend it before an embarrassing retreat. It means backbenchers might be more skeptical about sticking with the government next time around and start to expect future U-turns on other issues.
Magic beans: Ministers are insisting the U-turn does not amount to a reverse ferret because … the economic landscape has transformed from uber-gloom to flowers and sunshine. Both Starmer and Reeves said the change was possible because the government has stabilized the economy — illustrated by a couple of slightly less anemic growth figures and a few interest rate cuts. “Now that the public finances are on a firmer footing, we are able to take this decision,” a spokesperson for Starmer told reporters during a post-PMQs briefing.
And that means we can afford this … how? Playbook PM noted that none of the indicators had changed the amount of cash the government has to spend. The spokesperson said the Office for Budget Responsibility will set out the next fiscal forecast at the budget. Nothing to see here.
The plan for choices: Despite the fiscal picture happening to improving just enough for a U-turn on an issue that cost Labour at the local elections, the economy still isn’t good enough to concede all Cabinet minister demands at the spending review, natch.
Indeed: Reeves said in the Q&A after her infrastructure speech this morning that “not every department will get everything that they want” at the spending review. It was a clear signal to those departments still haggling over their settlements, with the chancellor even dismissing leaked suggestions from Deputy PM Angela Rayner about tax rises. Reeves said it was “normal” for ministers to “come up with ideas” and effectively branded the Rayner suggestions small beans.
And there’s more: Reeves gave short shrift to the spending review gambit from the Met overnight, claiming police will have to pick and choose which crimes to prioritize without more cash. “We have committed there will be a real-terms increase in the funding for police, so I don’t recognize those fears,” Reeves told regional hacks this afternoon. No doubt the attempt from the fire service will get a similar straight bat. Back to the drawing board, Yvette.
This hurts me too: Reeves said she had even been forced to reject “things I want to do” due to Conservative “maltreatment of our public services, our public realm and of our economy.” She insisted her fiscal rules, which limit what she can spend, are not to blame for the limits on what she can spend.
Does all this ring bells? Remember before the election when the Institute for Fiscal Studies said all the political manifestos were lying to you? The need to constrain departments at the spending review next week should illustrate the gap between promises and the real world. Reeves insisted however that the Labour manifesto will still be delivered on. “We made those commitments in our manifesto and we stick to them,” she said.
More sticking: Reeves also insisted that amid all the financial pressures (except for those relating to winter fuel U-turns) she will not be increasing taxes on (trigger warning) “working people” at her next budget — despite a growing assumption at Westminster that she will. She specified there will be no tax increases on income, VAT or national insurance. But she failed to repeat her pledge to unfreeze income tax thresholds from 2028. Note that one down.
The thing is … even Labour figures inside government and on the backbenches reckon taxes will need to rise to fund government plans, with the talk this week about preparing Britain for war seen as pitch-rolling ahead of significant hikes.
Not least because … Playbook PM has picked up concerns that government messaging about what can and cannot be afforded is not clear enough. One MP noted that the public doesn’t understand the difference between capital investment and regular revenue spending, so when Reeves argues there’s no more cash for public services but pours billions of pounds into trains and trams, minds will boggle. Expectations are that Labour will need to find much more to show proper change in public services to keep voters sweet.
Speaking of spunking: “Britain faces a binary choice: investment or decline,” Reeves said in her speech in Manchester this morning. “And I choose investment.” Full list of the billions of pounds-worth of transport announcements here. Steph Spyro at the Express spotted some of the town names were spelled wrong.
Doing their best to make an argument: The Tories attacked the infrastructure announcements with a claim most of the announcements were once upon a time theirs. “The previous government made a lot of commitments; what they didn’t do is put the money in to deliver them,” Reeves shot back. “You can make all the promises you like, but if the money is not there they’re not real.”
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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
WHOOPS! HMRC bosses confirmed this afternoon that some customers appear to have had their accounts hacked. Chief Exec John-Paul Marks told the Treasury committee 100,000 customers are affected in what the organization is branding an “organized crime scam.” He said the breach has cost the taxpayer some £47 million. HMRC has cut its phone lines — other than the one people can use to contact them about the scam. More details here. Accountant Daily has a good writeup.
WHAT KEIR STARMER AND KEMI BADENOCH ENDED UP ARGUING ABOUT: During a chaotic PMQs, in which Kemi Badenoch appeared genuinely wound up a couple of times, Keir Starmer seized on Moscow praising her comments about Ukraine fighting a “proxy war … on behalf of Western Europe against Russia.” He quipped: “If she carries on with Russian talking points, Reform will be sending her an application for membership.” Two birds one stone, etc.
But but but: Badenoch said Starmer was doing “everything he can to distract” from his long list of problems, and the Tories later put out a statement criticizing Starmer for repeating “Kremlin propaganda” in the Commons. So each accused the other of the same thing, despite both being on the same page about Ukraine, overall. The speaker of the Bahraini parliament sitting up in the VIP galleries with his flunkies in headscarves, must have been bemused. Our Noah Keate has his full PMQs scorecard here, and reckons Badenoch clinched it by going in pretty hard on a big Labour tension.
DEAL OR SLOW DEAL: Starmer told the Commons his MAGA-mitigation deal with Donald Trump will be implemented in “a couple of weeks,” after the U.S. president somehow turned the onus on Britain to get moving on its commitments first. The White House this week said London could still be hit with 50 percent steel tariffs “on or after 9 July” if it “determines that the U.K. has not complied with relevant aspects” of their deal.
Bookmark this: After Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey argued in the Commons that nothing will stop Trump “messing the U.K. around” the PM insisted the agreement for zero percent steel tariffs will be implemented “in a very short time.” Clip here. A Starmer spokesperson said during a post-PMQs briefing with hacks that it’s the “constant dialogue” with the White House that’s making the PM so confident about the timing, but the spokesperson would not commit to the deal being in place before July 9. “We of course want the arrangements in place ahead of that,” he said. Gulp.
Good question: “It takes three weeks to send a shipment of steel to the U.S. Would the PM advise exporters to start loading now?” asked Mail Political Editor Jason Groves. There was no clear answer to that one. A separate government official insisted the deal will be implemented “in the coming weeks.” Here’s hoping.
LOTS OF GAZA CHAT: Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer slammed the “inhumane” Israeli block on humanitarian aid in Gaza. He made the comment during a Commons statement in which Conservative former Cabinet minister Jeremy Wright also said the state of Palestine should “urgently” be recognized — a change in his past position. Keir Starmer told the Commons at PMQs recent Israeli actions had been “appalling” as well as “counterproductive and intolerable.” And Jeremy Corbyn had his moment on the issue too with his proposed bill to investigate U.K. involvement in the Israeli action in Gaza.
TOTAL BURQA: Reform was forced to make clear it does not support banning burqas, after its new MP Sarah Pochin called for the government to follow other European nations in doing so. Clip from PMQs here. Reform did say afterwards that the burqa issue deserves a national debate. And the Starmer response in the same clip about Pochin supporting the Conservatives under Liz Truss is worth a watch.
UNDER FIRE: Defense Secretary John Healey declined to publicly back NATO chief Mark Rutte’s five percent target under questioning in Brussels in the past hour, my POLITICO colleague Esther Webber writes in. He said he “recognized the urgency” of negotiations on upping defense spending but argued the issue will have to wait for the full NATO summit at the end of the month.
Reminder: Healey will meet other NATO defense ministers tomorrow, when the U.K. and others are expected to submit to Rutte’s target of hitting 3.5 percent, plus 1.5 percent on military-related needs, as demanded by Donald Trump. Esther hears officials in other NATO countries are pretty sanguine about the U.K. reluctance to guarantee even 3 percent this week, recognizing that all countries face their own domestic pressures.
NEXT POSSIBLE COMMONS SHOWDOWN: Labour MPs are preparing to rebel on the planning and infrastructure bill next week over environmental concerns, the Guardian reports. The paper notes that Labour MP Chris Hinchcliffe has put forward a number of amendments.
BEST HUMAN RIGHTS LAWYER FOR THE JOB: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said Keir Starmer is the perfect person to reform the European Convention on Human Rights to update it for the modern era (and make it easier to reduce small boat crossings, in theory.) “Which was the country that wrote it? It was Britain,” Hunt told Times Radio. “The only major country that happens to be led by a human rights lawyer who knows this all backwards.” He said Starmer is credible enough on the issue to build global consensus on a re-write. Good luck, as they say, with that.
SPEAKING OF THE LAW: Starmer said the government will consider easing the burden of proof for victims of miscarriages of justice to claim compensation. Watch the exchange with Conservative MP David Davis here.
ALAA TO PLAY FOR: The campaign to secure the release of British-Egyptian Alaa Abdel-Fattah, jailed in Cairo for political campaigning, has seen a flurry of activity in the past 12 hours, including celeb appeals and a plea from Richard Ratcliffe, whose wife Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was locked up in Iran for six years. Downing Street continues to insist it is doing all it can to secure a release, despite campaigners arguing more could be done.
ON THE A GENDER: Almost 100 written questions are expected to be tabled by MPs across the House over the next few weeks questioning the Equality and Human Rights Commission’s interim guidance on the Supreme Court ruling on single sex spaces. The aim is to probe the (negative) impact that implementing the new guidance could have on businesses, Playbook’s Bethany Dawson texts in. Labour MP Kate Osborne told Bethany firms are “concerned about the lack of specific advice, the risk of legal action if they do anything, and the potential for huge costs.”
STILL TO COME: Peers are set to vote to reinsert a clause on AI and transparency to the government’s data bill for the umpteenth time later this evening after ministers rejected chief troublemaker Beeban Kidron’s offer of a compromise, POLITICO’s tech reporter Joe Bambridge messages in to say. Ministers are furious at the upper chamber for defying the Commons over the issue — with government officials sending journos links to Erskine May this morning.
Now read this: It’s the latest twist in what has turned out to be a proper legislative headache for Labour. Joe has a must-read piece here.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
NOTHING TO SEE HERE: Just a Reform councillor arguing Conservatives “deserve to die.” He later said he meant the movement rather than the individuals.
BEYOND THE M25
IN GERMANY: The city of Cologne is undergoing a major evacuation after three unexploded U.S. World War II bombs weighing a combined 2,500 kilograms were discovered. Approximately 20,500 residents were evacuated from their homes and workplaces. My colleague Elena Giordano has more.
IN IRAN: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected a U.S. proposal on its nuclear program, arguing that the pitch would breach Tehran’s independence. The Wall Street Journal has his words.
IN HUNGARY: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s lawmakers will delay adopting a bill aimed at cutting off money to independent civil society and media in receipt of foreign funding as they take in feedback from lawyers and businesses. Bloomberg has a writeup.
IN VIETNAM: The Vietnamese government scrapped its two-child family policy in a bid to tackle a declining birthrate. The Guardian has more.
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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on the Middle East and has an interview with International Development Committee Chair Sarah Champion.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Association of Police and Crime Commissioners Chair Emily Spurrell (5.05 p.m.) … Israeli government Spokesperson David Mencer (5.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Transport Minister Lillian Greenwood … Tory MP Mark Pritchard … Police Federation Acting Deputy National Chair Brian Booth … former Volodymyr Zelenskyy adviser Igor Novikov … EU International Trade Committee Vice Chair Karin Karlsbro … the Mirror’s Mikey Smith and the Sun on Sunday’s Kate Ferguson (both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Crossbench peer and Northern Powerhouse Partnership Chair Jim O’Neill.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former U.K. Ambassador to the U.N. Jeremy Greenstock (5.30 p.m.) … former International Monetary Fund Deputy Director Mohamed El-Erian (6.30 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): UNICEF Spokesperson Tess Ingram.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan
… Tory MP Roger Gale … UNICEF Spokesperson James Elder … historian William Dalrymple.
The News Agents USA (Podcast, drops at 6 p.m.): Joe Biden biographer Evan Osnos.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former UKIP MEP Steven Woolfe.
Iain Dale (LBC, 7 p.m.): Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey phone-in (7 p.m. until 8 p.m.).
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng … former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle … former Donald Trump adviser Jason Miller.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Lilian Greenwood … former International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan … RMT Union General Secretary Eddie Dempsey.
The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Former government business and trade adviser Allie Renison … Northern Powerhouse Partnership Vice Chair Jessica Bowles.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Defense Committee Chair Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi … Lib Dem MP Lisa Smart … Tory peer Amanda Spielman.
Matt Goodwin’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Reform UK Director of Comms Gawain Towler.
Peston (9 p.m. on Twitter, 10.45 p.m. on ITV): Labour peer and strategic defense review author George Robertson … former Foreign Secretary David Miliband … businessman Dave Fishwick … Labour MP Dawn Butler … Onward Director Simon Clarke.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Popular Conservatism Director Mark Littlewood … Leave.EU campaign founder Arron Banks.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour MP Dan Tomlinson … former Education Secretary Gillian Keegan.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy and journo Vincent McAviney … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Broadcaster Steve Richards and former Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster.
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WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
GROWING CHATTER: Labour MPs Rachel Blake and David Pinto-Duschinsky are among speakers at a POLITICO event tonight about regulation and growth. Details here.
BIG DEPARTURE: Outgoing BBC veteran Jo Coburn is holding her leaving drinks tonight.
HUNTING FOR NEWS LINES: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaks at an Institute for Government event to launch his book, from 6 p.m.
SHOP BEERS: The British Retail Consortium hosts summer networking drinks in Covent Garden from 6.30 p.m.
IN MEMORIAM: Former Home Secretary James Cleverly gives the Sam Barker Memorial Lecture commemorating the Conservative Environment Network’s former director, from 6.45 p.m. followed by a drinks reception.
FREED DRINKS: Geopolitical brain Lawrence Freedman speaks at a U.K. in a Changing Europe event in Aldwych, from 7 p.m.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Free school meals and the 81st anniversary of the D-Day landings.
POLLING STATIONS: Polls open in the by-election for Scottish Parliament seat Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
MORE JAW JAW (ABOUT WAR WAR): NATO defense ministers meet at the organization’s Brussels HQ, amid expectations Mark Rutte will demand commitments to reach 3.5 percent of national GDP on defence spending.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 9.30 a.m. with Cabinet Office questions and the business statement, before select committee statements on criminal justice and the marine environment and two backbench business debates on high street banking closures and battery energy storage sites.
COURT CIRCULAR: Recently freed far-right agitator Tommy Robinson appears at Westminster Magistrates’ Court at 10 a.m. on a charge of harassment causing fear of violence against two men in August last year.
AI OVERLORDS UNITE: Department for Science Perm Sec Sarah Munby is quizzed by the Public Accounts Committee about U.K. research and innovation, from 10.45 a.m.
IN THE ACTUAL LORDS: Peers get going from 11 a.m. with questions, then the seventh committee stage session of the Employment Rights Bill.
STRIDING ON: Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride delivers a speech at the RSA from 11 a.m.
AFTER HOURS: A senior cabinet minister is expected to address a CBI business dinner.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Chickpea and spinach bonbon (what?) with roasted vegetables, giant couscous tabbouleh and rocket oil; jerk chicken with rice and peas; teriyaki salmon with pak choi, Chinese leaf, grilled eggplant and pickled chillies … The Debate: Jerk chicken with rice and peas; sea bream on lentil and cumin dhal with cherry tomato, red onion salad and coriander yoghurt; carrot and courgette spring roll with hoisin and pepper chow mein and sweet chilli sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: Pork and chorizo feijoada with steamed quinoa; jerk chicken with rice and peas; spinach and tofu parcel with roasted green peppers, tomatoes and olives … River Restaurant: Mushroom and thyme sausage and mash with red onion gravy; lemon plaice with new potatoes, spinach and leek gratin; lamb and eggplant tagine with capsicum couscous, roasted chickpea and mint cucumber salad.
NO MONSIEUR KEIR FOR MADAME: London tourist trap Madame Tussauds will not create a waxwork of Keir Starmer because he might not be around long enough, Craig Munro revealed in the Metro. The business said “the political landscape is fast-moving and unpredictable” so there’s little point making a model of someone who might be irrelevant soon.
LOBBY NEWS: UnHerd has got its first lobby pass. Assistant News Editor Max Mitchell is now in parliament.
GOTTA READ IT TO BELIEVE IT: This misunderstanding from Alba MSP Ash Regan is something to behold.
SPOTTED: BBC doc legend Louis Theroux in PCH and heading down the escalators to the palace … and GB News boss Angelos Frangopoulos chatting over coffee with Tory MP Katie Lam.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On June 4 1913, English suffragette Emily Davison threw herself in front of the King’s horse in protest at the withholding of votes for women. She later died. On the same date in 1940, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill made his famous “we shall fight on the beaches” speech in the Commons.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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